Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is maintaining a strong lead in the state’s Republican primary for Senate in 2024 as several paths lie before her to break into national politics.
A poll from Emerson College released Tuesday shows Lake with a 31-percentage-point lead over her nearest competitor. The firebrand conservative received 42% of the vote, compared to Republican candidate and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb‘s 11%.
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Lake hasn’t launched her campaign for Senate, and it’s possible she could have a different position in mind: vice president to former President Donald Trump, should he win the GOP nomination and the general election against President Joe Biden in 2024.
Trump has reportedly been eyeing some GOP presidential candidates and other conservative leaders as possible running mates. Lake, who is an adamant supporter of the former president, could be first in line if she decides against a Senate run.
2024 Arizona Senate GOP Primary
• Kari Lake — 42% (+31)
• Mark Lamb — 11%
• Blake Masters — 7%
• Jim Lamon — 2%
• Brian Wright — 2%
• Undecided — 28%Emerson (A-) | RVs | 08/02-04https://t.co/PhUaatTnxX
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 8, 2023
Lake narrowly lost to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) in the 2022 midterm elections, causing Lake to follow in Trump’s footsteps and blame election fraud for months.
She pushed her claims of election interference all the way to the Maricopa County Superior Court, where the court eventually affirmed there was no election fraud in Arizona’s gubernatorial race. Despite losing her court battles, Lake continues to push claims of voter fraud, which is similar to Trump’s reaction when he lost the 2020 election.
Lake has clearly thrown her support behind the former president for his GOP nomination race — so much so that she has asked the other Republican presidential candidates to “immediately suspend their campaigns” and “rally” around Trump. Her suggestion came after the former president was indicted for the third time on federal conspiracy charges, among others.
However, it is likely that several established Republicans will oppose Lake as Trump’s running mate, especially as the party looks to appeal to moderate and independent voters heading into 2024.
Lake is one of several Trump-endorsed candidates who cruised through the Republican primaries, beating out centrist options, and went on to lose to Democrats. It resulted in the GOP only managing a narrow majority in the House and Democrats holding onto the Senate, a less-than-expected performance by Republicans.
Republicans fear a repeat of 2022, particularly if Lake becomes a Senate candidate or a vice president to Trump. However, they are coming to terms with the idea that she may be the party’s front-runner in the Arizona Senate race, particularly after her primary opponent, Republican Karrin Taylor Robson, announced she would not be running for Senate.
While Lamb is making progress in the polls, it likely will not make much of a difference in the Senate race.
In a head-to-head matchup between Lamb, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Tuesday’s poll showed 36% of the vote going to Gallego, followed by 29% supporting Lamb and 21% support Sinema. Fifteen percent are undecided.
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However, 57% of Trump 2020 voters support Lamb. If Trump secures the GOP nomination and Lake joins him as his running mate, it could provide Lamb the boost he needs to defeat Sinema and Gallego.
The Emerson College poll was conducted between Wednesday and Friday with a sample of 1,337 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
