A top Pentagon official declared that Russia has “no chance” to achieve its overarching objectives in Ukraine as the war nears the conclusion of its 11th month.
Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl, who recently traveled to Ukraine, told reporters on Wednesday that he’s of the view that Russia is incapable of accomplishing President Vladimir Putin’s true goals and that if it were able to, it would’ve happened in the initial days and weeks of the invasion as many experts expected.
“The one thing I’m completely certain of: I don’t know about the Ukrainian side, but on the Russian side, there’s no chance that the Russians are going to achieve their strategic objectives. None,” Kahl said. “Because if those objectives were to wipe Ukraine off the map, replace its regime, bite off a huge chunk of the country, divide the West, weaken NATO — every single one of those objectives that Putin said has been flipped completely on its head.”
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“There’s no question about that,” he added. “NATO is not weaker; it’s emerged stronger. The world is not divided; it’s more united. Russia is not stronger; they’re weaker. They have far less territorial control than they did after, say, a month after the conflict.”
Putin, on Tuesday, while addressing workers at a factory in St. Petersburg that makes air defense systems, made the exact opposite statement, guaranteeing battlefield success.
“In terms of achieving the end result and the victory that is inevitable, there are several things. … It is the unity and cohesion of the Russian and multinational Russian people, the courage and heroism of our fighters … and of course the work of the military-industrial complex and factories like yours and people like you,” he said, according to Reuters.
Kahl accused Putin of having “serially miscalculated Ukrainians’ capabilities, will, and resolve and the resolve of the rest of the world.”
He, along with Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and principal deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, traveled to Ukraine over the weekend to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, and Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, among others.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley will be in Germany on Friday for the eighth meeting of the Defense Contact Group, which is a group of defense leaders from roughly 50 countries who meet monthly, sometimes virtually, to discuss their ongoing support for Ukraine and how to assist them best. The day before, Austin will meet with incoming German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who assumed the position after his predecessor, Christine Lambrecht, announced her resignation on Monday amid criticism of her performance.
“The Contact Group has been instrumental in identifying, synchronizing, and ensuring delivery of the military capabilities the Ukrainians need to defend their homeland against Russian aggression,” said Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder at a briefing on Tuesday, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated the same day that a new military aid package will be announced “in the days to come.” They’re “coordinating security assistance among many countries,” he said.
This latest package will likely include artillery, ammunition, and armored combat vehicles. But it’s unlikely to include the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that can reach deep behind Russian lines in Crimea or the Donbas, which the Biden administration has previously declined to provide, citing concerns of provoking Putin.
“Our judgment to date has been that the juice isn’t really working the squeeze on the ATACMs. You never know. That judgment at some point could change, but we’re not there yet on the ATACMs,” Kahl said.
The Biden administration announced a new military aid package worth nearly $4 billion earlier this month that included 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles. Germany announced it would provide its Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicle at the time, too.
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“We believe the provision of modern tanks will significantly help and improve the Ukrainians’ ability to fight where they are fighting now and fight more effectively going forward,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday, referring to European tanks.
As defense leaders meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Ukrainian troops are being trained by U.S. forces on the weapons they’re providing.
Soldiers from U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command’s 7th Army Training Command have already begun training roughly 500 Ukrainian troops in Germany. The goal is to get these service members back on the battlefield between one and two months from now. Additionally, the Department of Defense will train Ukrainian forces on the Patriot missile system at Fort Sill in Oklahoma.
