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October 10, 2023

A Gallup poll published on October 4, 2023 should serve as a wake-up call to both the Democrat and Republican Parties as well as their prospective presidential nominees in 2024.

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A massive 63% of those polled told Gallup they agree with the premise that the Republican and Democratic Parties do such a poor job of representing the American people that a third major party is necessary. 46% of Democrats and a whopping 76% of Independents believe a third party is needed.

The change among Republican voters claiming the need for a third party is the most significant revelation of this poll. As of October of 2023, 58% of Republicans believe a third party is a necessity. That is up 13 points from last year when Donald Trump’s announced he would run for a second term. In the normal course of events, once Trump got into the race the percentage of Republicans agreeing that at third party was needed should have receded not increased. During Trump’s four years in office an average of only 39% of Republicans agreed that a third party was needed.

Much of this reaction among the general populace is due to three factors. First, the unpopularity of both Trump (57% unfavorable) and Biden (54% unfavorable). Second, the Democrat Party’s pursuit of far-left policies that alienate a majority of voters. And third, the Republican Party’s fecklessness in dealing with the Democrat Party’s extremism while publicly airing out their internal squabbles like children on a school playground.

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This Gallup poll is not an outlier. Another recent poll exposes the potential impact of a third party vote on the outcome of the 2024 election.

In eight all-important battleground states that will decide the 2024 election, a majority of the registered voters polled said they would back a third-party candidate if the 2024 election features a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Overall, 63% claim they would be open to supporting a centrist independent ticket. 72% believe Biden should not win a second term (which is among the many reasons he will not be on the ballot in November of 2024), while 63% say Trump should not win a second term. This opens the door for an alternative candidate to garner significant votes in the general election. A third party candidate cannot win in any of these states, but they will have a major impact on who does.

The Libertarian Party is extraordinarily bullish on their ability to achieve major inroads among the electorate in 2024 and make an Electoral College breakthrough for the first time in their 50-year history. Their confidence is exemplified by their 2020 vice-presidential nominee, Spike Cohen, who when asked about splitting the 2024 vote said:

Libertarians intend to take so many votes from Republicrats that neither of their candidates can win, and we win instead. If we fall short of that, we will still have a major impact. And if they want so many voters to stop voting for us, they should put up candidates that suck less.

The Libertarian Party’s impact on not only the Republican presidential ticket but down ballot elections as well cannot be underestimated. In 2020, Trump lost Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin (and thus the presidency) by a combined 42,000 votes, the Libertarian candidate garnered 153,000 votes in those states and 2024 projects to be a far better year for third-party candidates.