May 20, 2024
Wagner Convoys Advancing Towards Russian Capital, Chechens Loyal To Putin En Route

Update(1120ET): Wagner Group is making a move on the Russian capital, with multiple reports and videos now confirming Wagner convoys are headed toward Moscow, going north from Rostov region. At the same time, Chechen groups loyal to Putin are now sending their own armed convoys toward Rostov-on-Don, which has several key installations under the control of Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused of 'treason' by the Kremlin.

Reuters is reporting, "Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters barreled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, with Russia’s military firing on them from the air but seemingly incapable of slowing their lightning advance." Little to no significant resistance is being observed while Wagner convoys blow through makeshift roadblocks. Some observers say Wagner fighters have been spotted within a mere few hours outside the capital.

"Reuters saw troop carriers and a flatbed truck carrying a tank careening past the city of Voronezh more than half way to Moscow, where a helicopter fired on them," the outlet noted. "But there were no reports of the rebels meeting any substantial resistance on the highway."

The Lipetsk governor has also confirmed armed Wagner forces are rapidly moving across the region, advancing in the direction of Moscow. While the Russian government erects barriers, it's unclear which military units have been mustered as Prigozhin threatens the capital.

Along with roadblocks of construction trucks and 18-wheelers, there are reports suggesting roads are being destroyed to block the insurrectionists' progress:

Per regional reports:

NEXTA, an independent media outlet founded in Belarus that covers news in eastern Europe and Russia, reported that authorities were destroying the main roads in the Lipetsk region to keep Wagner Group tanks and vehicles from approaching Moscow. Other sources have published similar videos of excavators tearing up roadways.

Notes on recent updates, and a word of caution, over the last two hours via Mario Nawfal:

  • Worries of the Russian Nuclear Warheads moved to Belarus weeks ago 
  • Wagner forces continue their advance to Moscow with limited strikes by the Russian Air Force 
  • Reports of Putin and other officials leaving Moscow and heading to Saint Petersburg based on the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. TASS, which is Gov controlled media outlet, reported that Putin is heading to Saint Petersburg, but Putin's Press Secretary refuted those reports. It is very unusual and rare to see such a disconnect between TASS and the Kremlin.

MY THOUGHTS: 

  • This is a military coup, we can no longer dispute this, and things are moving VERY rapidly and are not looking good for Putin. 
  • We are seeing limited military clashes, showing likely defections among Russian forces 
  • Almost EVERYTHING right now can't be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt

Meanwhile, clashes could be imminent between Chechens loyal to Putin and Wagner mercenaries, which will be a nightmare scenario for surrounding civilians in the Rostov region...

Unverified reports that Wagner has begun arrests of Chechen and other military forces...

The below map purports to show Wagner's progress north on Saturday:

* * *

In his first speech addressing the crisis of Wagner's armed rebellion on Saturday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush what he called Yevgeny Prigozhin's "betrayal". Southern governors, for example Alexander Gusev who oversees the city of Voronezh, have since confirmed armed clashes between regular military forces and Wagner fighters within Russian territory. He described necessary "combat measures" as part of counter-terror operations in the southern region.

What was unclear by Friday night is now becoming very clear as of Saturday: all hell is breaking loose in this first significant moment in over two decades of Putin's iron grip on power being threatened by armed mutiny. "Any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood and to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia and to our people," Putin said in the televised speech. "This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unification of all forces."

In Rostov-on-Don military command HQ. Via Wagner Telegram/Reuters

"What we have been faced with is exactly betrayal. Extravagant ambitions and personal interests led to treason," Putin said, referring to Prigozhin, head of the most powerful private military firm in Russia. "All those who consciously stood on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people," Putin vowed.

He further in fiery language denounced the "stab in the back of our country and our people," after Prigozhin the day prior declared war against the defense ministry, urging all Russians to join his 25,000 fighters as they seek to "stop" and overthrow Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other top commanders.

In response to Putin's blistering speech, Prigozhin released a Telegram statement calling the president "deeply mistaken" regarding his assessment of betrayal of the motherland, refusing to surrender. The audio message released by his press service said as follows: 

"Regarding the ‘betrayal of the motherland,’ the president is deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our Motherland, we fought and are fighting, all the fighters of the PMC Wagner."

“And no one is going to turn themselves in at the request of the president, the FSB or anyone else,” he added.

This marks the first time he's directed criticism precisely in response to Putin, as before he appeared to carefully avoid direct references to the Russian leader in his denunciations of military planning and Kremlin decision-making.

Below summarizes fast-moving events of the last few hours:

  • Putin 5 min speech: accuses Prigozhin of betrayal, vows decisive action 
  • Wagner controls facilities in Rostov & Voronezh, M4 highway disrupted. Rebellion continues 
  • Chechen Kadyrov mobilizes to help Putin. Russia FM warns of ‘civil strife’

Civilians have reportedly been ordered away from all military command centers in the now Wagner-held city center of Rostov-on-Don.

The Wagner chief in his response harped on the familiar theme of the defense ministry's "corruption, deceit, and bureaucracy" and emphasized that his own fighters are patriotic and doing their duty.

“When we were told that we were at war with Ukraine, we went and fought. But it turned out that ammunition, weapons, all the money that was allocated is also being stolen, and the bureaucrats are sitting [idly], saving it for themselves, just for the occasion that happened today, when someone [is] marching to Moscow," he said.

It is the second time since Russian authorities (the FSB) declared Prigozhin was engaging in 'armed munity' that the Wagner chief declared a "march of justice" on Moscow. As for the capital (and other major cities), the military and security services have been ordered by the Kremlin to secure the streets and beef up their presence.

Crucially, Wagner has declared control of the military command center and bases in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, a claim which some emerging videos appear to give some degree of authentication to...

"Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, once a close Putin ally, said his troops had taken control of the military command centre and bases in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, the nerve centre of Russia's offensive in Ukraine, and vowed to topple Moscow's top military leaders," AFP is noting.

The fight is on, and could spread further north, engaging political centers of the country:

Further north, on Wagner's possible route towards Moscow, the governor of Russia's Voronezh region said the armed forces had launched a "counter-terrorist operation" to suppress the revolt. A fuel depot on Voronezh city was on fire, he said.

The FSB security service accused Prigozhin of attempting to launch a "civil conflict" and urged Wagner fighters to detain him.

Russian police have moved against Wagner's headquarters in St. Petersburg, where things have been largely without incident thus far:

Active fighting, even including with air power, has erupted as Wagner convoys seek to make their way north, deeper into Russia...

Meanwhile, this will without doubt be a huge blow to the morale of both Russian troops and Wagner fighters alike along the frontlines inside Ukraine. It's as yet unclear the degree to which Wagner has withdrawn from the Eastern Ukraine theatre, though it's now been confirmed that Wagner forces had marched into Rostov overnight.

Kiev will smell a grand 'opportunity'. It along with its Western backers are closely monitoring, with Ukraine officials saying this "rebellion" is a "sign of the collapse of the Putin regime."

"The internal Russian confrontation between the leader of the so-called Wagner PMC Prigozhin and the military and political leadership of the aggressor state is a sign of the collapse of the Putin regime," a statement by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said.

"First of all, we must understand that this is an internal Russian conflict and confrontation which are a direct consequence of the Putin regime's criminal military aggression against Ukraine," the statement cited in CNN added.

It must be remembered that these shocking events which threaten to unleash chaos within Russia come at a moment that by many accounts Ukraine's counteroffensive appeared to be failing. President Zelensky himself at the start of the week had conceded a "slower than desired" start to the offensive. But now this could breath new life into it amid reports Ukraine is taking the opportunity to assault front lines. 

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelensky, told a Saturday press conference: "The launch of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has finally destabilized the Russian elites, exacerbating the internal split that emerged after the defeat in Ukraine." Time will tell if Russian commanders can keep their frontlines unified even as things crumble with the Wagner situation.

* * *

Below are key excerpts from Putin's Saturday speech vowing to crush the Wagner rebellion, as translated and compiled by state-run RT:

Importance of unity

President Putin argued that “Russia is today waging a grueling fight for its future,” facing off with the “neo-Nazis and their masters.” He went on to stress that “essentially the entire might of the West’s military, economic and information machine” is being directed against the country.

“This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided,” calls for national unity and consolidation, Putin said in his address. According to the president, all internal conflicts and bickering must be put aside at present as “our external enemies can and use them to undermine us internally.”

The Russian head of state emphasized that any actions driving a wedge between Russians are nothing short of “backstabbing of our country and our people.”

Bitter history lessons

Putin reminded Russians that a similar scenario played out in the country in 1917, when it was in the middle of World War I. He recounted how “intrigues, bickering, politicking behind the army’s and the people’s back” led to the “collapse of the state,” and the “tragedy of the Civil War.”

“Russians were killing Russians, brothers were killing brothers, while various political adventurers and foreign powers were capitalizing on it,” the president said.

Putin vowed to prevent this from happening as well as to defend Russia and its people, “including from internal mutiny.”

Nature of the threat

In his address, Putin clearly labelled the PMC coup attempt as a “betrayal.” He cited “enormous ambitions and personal interests” of certain individuals as the reasons behind this “betrayal of their country and its people.” He went on to accuse those responsible, without naming Prigozhin in particular, of turning their back on the joint military cause in Ukraine and the memory of the fallen fighters.

If successful, the coup would lead to “anarchy and fratricide,” resulting, in the long run, in Russia’s “defeat” and “capitulation,” according to Putin.

The president characterized “any internal mutiny” as a death threat to the Russian state and nation. The president pledged to take “tough measures” against the mutineers, who have “willingly entered the path of betrayal” and prepared “armed insurrection.”

Those responsible will be brought to account before the Russian people, the president assured the public.

Tyler Durden Sat, 06/24/2023 - 11:20

Update(1120ET): Wagner Group is making a move on the Russian capital, with multiple reports and videos now confirming Wagner convoys are headed toward Moscow, going north from Rostov region. At the same time, Chechen groups loyal to Putin are now sending their own armed convoys toward Rostov-on-Don, which has several key installations under the control of Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused of ‘treason’ by the Kremlin.

Reuters is reporting, “Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters barreled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, with Russia’s military firing on them from the air but seemingly incapable of slowing their lightning advance.” Little to no significant resistance is being observed while Wagner convoys blow through makeshift roadblocks. Some observers say Wagner fighters have been spotted within a mere few hours outside the capital.

“Reuters saw troop carriers and a flatbed truck carrying a tank careening past the city of Voronezh more than half way to Moscow, where a helicopter fired on them,” the outlet noted. “But there were no reports of the rebels meeting any substantial resistance on the highway.”

The Lipetsk governor has also confirmed armed Wagner forces are rapidly moving across the region, advancing in the direction of Moscow. While the Russian government erects barriers, it’s unclear which military units have been mustered as Prigozhin threatens the capital.

Along with roadblocks of construction trucks and 18-wheelers, there are reports suggesting roads are being destroyed to block the insurrectionists’ progress:

Per regional reports:

NEXTA, an independent media outlet founded in Belarus that covers news in eastern Europe and Russia, reported that authorities were destroying the main roads in the Lipetsk region to keep Wagner Group tanks and vehicles from approaching Moscow. Other sources have published similar videos of excavators tearing up roadways.

Notes on recent updates, and a word of caution, over the last two hours via Mario Nawfal:

  • Worries of the Russian Nuclear Warheads moved to Belarus weeks ago 
  • Wagner forces continue their advance to Moscow with limited strikes by the Russian Air Force 
  • Reports of Putin and other officials leaving Moscow and heading to Saint Petersburg based on the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. TASS, which is Gov controlled media outlet, reported that Putin is heading to Saint Petersburg, but Putin’s Press Secretary refuted those reports. It is very unusual and rare to see such a disconnect between TASS and the Kremlin.

MY THOUGHTS: 

  • This is a military coup, we can no longer dispute this, and things are moving VERY rapidly and are not looking good for Putin. 
  • We are seeing limited military clashes, showing likely defections among Russian forces 
  • Almost EVERYTHING right now can’t be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt

Meanwhile, clashes could be imminent between Chechens loyal to Putin and Wagner mercenaries, which will be a nightmare scenario for surrounding civilians in the Rostov region…

Unverified reports that Wagner has begun arrests of Chechen and other military forces…

The below map purports to show Wagner’s progress north on Saturday:

* * *

In his first speech addressing the crisis of Wagner’s armed rebellion on Saturday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush what he called Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “betrayal”. Southern governors, for example Alexander Gusev who oversees the city of Voronezh, have since confirmed armed clashes between regular military forces and Wagner fighters within Russian territory. He described necessary “combat measures” as part of counter-terror operations in the southern region.

What was unclear by Friday night is now becoming very clear as of Saturday: all hell is breaking loose in this first significant moment in over two decades of Putin’s iron grip on power being threatened by armed mutiny. “Any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood and to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia and to our people,” Putin said in the televised speech. “This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the unification of all forces.”

In Rostov-on-Don military command HQ. Via Wagner Telegram/Reuters

“What we have been faced with is exactly betrayal. Extravagant ambitions and personal interests led to treason,” Putin said, referring to Prigozhin, head of the most powerful private military firm in Russia. “All those who consciously stood on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed rebellion, stood on the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, before the law and before our people,” Putin vowed.

He further in fiery language denounced the “stab in the back of our country and our people,” after Prigozhin the day prior declared war against the defense ministry, urging all Russians to join his 25,000 fighters as they seek to “stop” and overthrow Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other top commanders.

In response to Putin’s blistering speech, Prigozhin released a Telegram statement calling the president “deeply mistaken” regarding his assessment of betrayal of the motherland, refusing to surrender. The audio message released by his press service said as follows: 

“Regarding the ‘betrayal of the motherland,’ the president is deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our Motherland, we fought and are fighting, all the fighters of the PMC Wagner.”

“And no one is going to turn themselves in at the request of the president, the FSB or anyone else,” he added.

This marks the first time he’s directed criticism precisely in response to Putin, as before he appeared to carefully avoid direct references to the Russian leader in his denunciations of military planning and Kremlin decision-making.

Below summarizes fast-moving events of the last few hours:

  • Putin 5 min speech: accuses Prigozhin of betrayal, vows decisive action 
  • Wagner controls facilities in Rostov & Voronezh, M4 highway disrupted. Rebellion continues 
  • Chechen Kadyrov mobilizes to help Putin. Russia FM warns of ‘civil strife’

Civilians have reportedly been ordered away from all military command centers in the now Wagner-held city center of Rostov-on-Don.

The Wagner chief in his response harped on the familiar theme of the defense ministry’s “corruption, deceit, and bureaucracy” and emphasized that his own fighters are patriotic and doing their duty.

“When we were told that we were at war with Ukraine, we went and fought. But it turned out that ammunition, weapons, all the money that was allocated is also being stolen, and the bureaucrats are sitting [idly], saving it for themselves, just for the occasion that happened today, when someone [is] marching to Moscow,” he said.

It is the second time since Russian authorities (the FSB) declared Prigozhin was engaging in ‘armed munity’ that the Wagner chief declared a “march of justice” on Moscow. As for the capital (and other major cities), the military and security services have been ordered by the Kremlin to secure the streets and beef up their presence.

Crucially, Wagner has declared control of the military command center and bases in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, a claim which some emerging videos appear to give some degree of authentication to…

“Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, once a close Putin ally, said his troops had taken control of the military command centre and bases in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, the nerve centre of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, and vowed to topple Moscow’s top military leaders,” AFP is noting.

The fight is on, and could spread further north, engaging political centers of the country:

Further north, on Wagner’s possible route towards Moscow, the governor of Russia’s Voronezh region said the armed forces had launched a “counter-terrorist operation” to suppress the revolt. A fuel depot on Voronezh city was on fire, he said.

The FSB security service accused Prigozhin of attempting to launch a “civil conflict” and urged Wagner fighters to detain him.

Russian police have moved against Wagner’s headquarters in St. Petersburg, where things have been largely without incident thus far:

Active fighting, even including with air power, has erupted as Wagner convoys seek to make their way north, deeper into Russia…

Meanwhile, this will without doubt be a huge blow to the morale of both Russian troops and Wagner fighters alike along the frontlines inside Ukraine. It’s as yet unclear the degree to which Wagner has withdrawn from the Eastern Ukraine theatre, though it’s now been confirmed that Wagner forces had marched into Rostov overnight.

Kiev will smell a grand ‘opportunity’. It along with its Western backers are closely monitoring, with Ukraine officials saying this “rebellion” is a “sign of the collapse of the Putin regime.”

“The internal Russian confrontation between the leader of the so-called Wagner PMC Prigozhin and the military and political leadership of the aggressor state is a sign of the collapse of the Putin regime,” a statement by the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine said.

“First of all, we must understand that this is an internal Russian conflict and confrontation which are a direct consequence of the Putin regime’s criminal military aggression against Ukraine,” the statement cited in CNN added.

It must be remembered that these shocking events which threaten to unleash chaos within Russia come at a moment that by many accounts Ukraine’s counteroffensive appeared to be failing. President Zelensky himself at the start of the week had conceded a “slower than desired” start to the offensive. But now this could breath new life into it amid reports Ukraine is taking the opportunity to assault front lines. 

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelensky, told a Saturday press conference: “The launch of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has finally destabilized the Russian elites, exacerbating the internal split that emerged after the defeat in Ukraine.” Time will tell if Russian commanders can keep their frontlines unified even as things crumble with the Wagner situation.

* * *

Below are key excerpts from Putin’s Saturday speech vowing to crush the Wagner rebellion, as translated and compiled by state-run RT:

Importance of unity

President Putin argued that “Russia is today waging a grueling fight for its future,” facing off with the “neo-Nazis and their masters.” He went on to stress that “essentially the entire might of the West’s military, economic and information machine” is being directed against the country.

“This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided,” calls for national unity and consolidation, Putin said in his address. According to the president, all internal conflicts and bickering must be put aside at present as “our external enemies can and use them to undermine us internally.”

The Russian head of state emphasized that any actions driving a wedge between Russians are nothing short of “backstabbing of our country and our people.”

Bitter history lessons

Putin reminded Russians that a similar scenario played out in the country in 1917, when it was in the middle of World War I. He recounted how “intrigues, bickering, politicking behind the army’s and the people’s back” led to the “collapse of the state,” and the “tragedy of the Civil War.”

“Russians were killing Russians, brothers were killing brothers, while various political adventurers and foreign powers were capitalizing on it,” the president said.

Putin vowed to prevent this from happening as well as to defend Russia and its people, “including from internal mutiny.”

Nature of the threat

In his address, Putin clearly labelled the PMC coup attempt as a “betrayal.” He cited “enormous ambitions and personal interests” of certain individuals as the reasons behind this “betrayal of their country and its people.” He went on to accuse those responsible, without naming Prigozhin in particular, of turning their back on the joint military cause in Ukraine and the memory of the fallen fighters.

If successful, the coup would lead to “anarchy and fratricide,” resulting, in the long run, in Russia’s “defeat” and “capitulation,” according to Putin.

The president characterized “any internal mutiny” as a death threat to the Russian state and nation. The president pledged to take “tough measures” against the mutineers, who have “willingly entered the path of betrayal” and prepared “armed insurrection.”

Those responsible will be brought to account before the Russian people, the president assured the public.

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