Tuesday’s primaries saw several major developments of national significance, some of which may help shape the dynamics of the midterm elections.
Some of the most consequential primary elections took place on Tuesday, with some decided decisively and others going to runoffs.
Kentucky: Massie ousted
In one of the greatest tests of President Donald Trump’s hold over the Republican Party, the president once again emerged on top. After falling out with Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) last year, Trump began devoting resources to ousting the libertarian Republican, who has occupied Kentucky’s 4th District since 2012.
Ousting Massie was no easy task. The Kentucky Republican had won nearly all his previous primary and general elections overwhelmingly, and he was previously popular in his district. Polls had him well ahead of his Trump-endorsed rival, former Navy SEAL Captain Ed Gallrein, until relatively recently. Massie’s frequent criticism of Israel won him the support of many online right-wing influencers who see themselves as the true inheritors of the MAGA movement, and some mobilized to support the incumbent.
THOMAS MASSIE RACE SETS HOUSE PRIMARY SPENDING RECORD
All came to naught for the defiant Republican, as he was resoundingly defeated on Tuesday by 10%. Massie and Gallrein mobilized extensive financial support, which broke the primary spending record, but the intervention of pro-Israel donors against Massie helped give the latter a clear financial edge.
Massie conceded defeat Tuesday night in a bitter speech, suggesting that Gallrein was controlled by Israel, bashing Trump’s ballroom, and finding a silver lining by claiming the race had delayed the resumption of the war with Iran.
Along with solidifying Trump’s stranglehold on the party, Massie’s defeat served as a brutal reality check for online right-wing influencers who have tried to flank Trump from the right, led by the likes of Tucker Carlson. Their inability to wield their online influence in a real-life race illustrated the limit of their influence within Trump’s Republican Party.
Georgia: Democrats see high turnout, and Brian Kemp’s pick makes it to runoff
Georgia’s primary races saw three notable developments — high Democratic primary turnout in the gubernatorial race, another defeat of a Trump foe, and Gov. Brian Kemp’s (R-GA) Senate pick making it to a runoff.
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the Democratic nomination resoundingly, avoiding a runoff after seizing over 56% of the vote. Her rivals split the remainder, with former Georgia state Sen. Jason Esteves taking nearly 19% and state Rep. Michael Thurmond, who took about 13%.
Lance Bottoms won through better name recognition and a plethora of major endorsements, including former President Joe Biden’s first post-presidency endorsement.
More notably, the Democratic gubernatorial primary boasted higher turnout than the Republican: Nearly 1.1 million voters showed up for the Democratic primary, compared to under 950,000 for Republicans. Optimistic Democrats are sure to view this as a sign of higher enthusiasm in the purple state.
On the Republican side, Trump claimed another scalp in the gubernatorial primary as two Trump-aligned candidates made it to a runoff, while his foe was defeated. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones got 38.4% of the vote, while healthcare executive Rick Jackson got 32.5%, with about 99% of expected votes in. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, known nationally for clashing with Trump over the 2020 election, was crushed with just 15% of the vote.
In the Republican Senate primary, meanwhile, Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) got 40.5% of the vote while the Kemp-backed former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley got 30.2%, sending them to a runoff.
Pennsylvania: Shapiro-backed challengers win big
Four Democrats, supported by Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), all won their primaries Tuesday night, setting them up for the general election where they hope to flip the state’s swing districts.
Janelle Stelson, Bob Harvie, and Bob Brooks, all of whom were supported by Shapiro, defeated their primary challengers Tuesday. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti was also endorsed by Shapiro and won her primary for Pennsylvania’s 8th District, though she ran unopposed.
Harvie will face Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) in November for Pennsylvania’s 1st District, which encompasses Bucks County. Stelson will face Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), who has served in Congress since 2013 in Pennsylvania’s 10th District. Brooks, a union firefighter who even saw support from Pete Buttigieg during the campaign, will face Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA) in the state’s 7th District.
Democrats see these four races as the key to taking back the House of Representatives in the fall.
“Pennsylvania isn’t just a swing state anymore — it’s the swing state,” political analyst Mike Fahey previously told the Washington Examiner. “If Democrats are going to win the House, the road runs directly through those four districts. The margins are razor-thin.”
Kentucky: McConnell gets a pro-Trump successor
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is approaching the end of his congressional career, having announced his retirement following criticism of his age. Serving as the center of the old Republican establishment throughout the entire Trump era, his career ends with a final humiliation — his replacement by a vocally pro-Trump figure.
Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) had maneuvered his way to victory by securing Trump’s coveted endorsement over Nate Morris, a pro-Trump businessman who won the last political endorsement of late conservative activist Charlie Kirk before he was killed in September. After securing the endorsement and Morris’s bowing out from the race, Barr only had to face off against former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, widely viewed as McConnell’s protege.
Tuesday signaled the effective end of McConnell’s influence. Barr crushed the outgoing senator’s protege by nearly 30%. His victory in the general election in November is effectively guaranteed.
“Mr. President, thank you for your powerful support. I look forward to fighting alongside you to advance our America First agenda and deliver for Kentucky in the United States Senate,” Barr said in his victory speech on Tuesday night.
TRUMP-BACKED ED GALLREIN DEFEATS THOMAS MASSIE IN KENTUCKY
Pennsylvania: ‘Squad’-backed progressive defeats establishment
Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District, including Philadelphia, is the bluest district in the country, so primary battles serve as a gauge of the ideological currents within the party. On Tuesday, Democratic state Rep. Chris Rabb defeated Democratic state Sen. Sharif Street, marking a major victory for the left wing of the party and a stunning defeat for Philadelphia’s political machine.
Street, hailing from a prominent Philadelphia political family, was previously chairman of the state’s Democratic Party. He served as the face of the Democratic establishment in the race and likewise earned the support of the city’s political machine.
This support failed to hand him victory, however, as he received just 29.5% of the vote compared to Rabb’s 44.3%, with 92.2% of the vote counted.
Rabb is now set to cruise his way to Congress in a seat Republicans hardly bother with.
