March 3, 2024
Voters in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma vote on Tuesday in key primary, runoff, and special elections in each state that could say a lot about where the nation is headed going into the midterm elections in November.

Voters in Florida, New York, and Oklahoma vote on Tuesday in key primary, runoff, and special elections in each state that could say a lot about where the nation is headed going into the midterm elections less than three months from now.

In Florida, Democrats will select a gubernatorial nominee between Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL) and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) to face off against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in November. Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) seeks to make her bid for the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate official, and aims to turn her attention formally to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in November.

Down-ticket in Florida, several interesting congressional primaries from the GOP side in Florida’s seventh and thirteenth districts to the Democrat side in Florida’s tenth district are also likely to be interesting.

Up in New York, a special election for the 19th Congressional District between Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan could say something about the upcoming midterms. A Molinaro victory would be yet another flip from Democrat control to GOP control in special elections, as this seat was vacated by former Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) when Delgado took the job as Lieutenant Governor for Gov. Kathy Hochul. Molinaro winning would slice House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority down to just three seats, and make it very difficult for Democrats to pass any agenda items before the end of the year.

GOP voters upstate in the Buffalo suburbs will also select a nominee for the new 23rd Congressional District, a nasty primary that has pitted businessman Carl Paladino against New York GOP chairman Nick Langworthy. Republicans will also have several other interesting primaries statewide.

But the main event may be on the Democrat side in New York City, where two longtime Democrats–who are also both top lieutenants of Pelosi as committee chairs–will face off on the island of Manhattan to see who survives. Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) and Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) have spent the past several months duking it out in a gnarly Democrat-on-Democrat intra-party war, and the winner will be crowned on Tuesday. Several other Democrats, due to redistricting and New York losing population–and a congressional district–also face interesting primary battles, including Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY). Former President Donald Trump has poked fun at the Democrats by jokingly endorsing several of them in efforts to actually hurt them with Democrat voters. Whether that had any impact remains to be seen.

Down in Oklahoma, GOP voters will select the nominee in the primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring longtime Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK). Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), with former President Trump’s endorsement, has surged to the front of the race, but a late-breaking poll suggests that challenger T.W. Shannon might be stronger than he looks–so Mullin looks to make it official and keep Trump’s U.S. Senate primary endorsement record perfect this cycle.

The polls close in most of Florida at 7 p.m. ET, and in the Central Time zone parts of Florida in the Panhandle, as well as in Oklahoma, at 8 p.m. ET. The polls close in New York at 9 p.m. ET. Follow along here for live updates as the results pour in.

UPDATE 11:48 p.m. ET:

More are calling it for Democrat Pat Ryan–and it is definitely a win for the Democrats in a battleground district over Republican Marc Molinaro:

One point some Republicans have argued, though, is that independents did not turn up in New York in as big of numbers as they do in a general election as New York has closed primaries. Whether that holds true heading into November remains to be seen. But the Democrats won this battle for sure, and it might be a wake-up call for Republicans to take nothing for granted heading into the home stretch of the general election season ahead of Labor Day.

UPDATE 11:41 p.m. ET:

It looks like Democrat Pat Ryan is going to hang on barely in New York’s 19th district special election, and some are beginning to formally call it:

UPDATE 11:38 p.m. ET:

Back on the Florida school board wins for conservatives tonight, Christian Ziegler–the vice chairman of the Florida GOP whose wife Bridget Ziegler is a Sarasota County School Board member–tweeted this tonight noting that Breitbart News was the only news outlet that would cover this storyline as it was happening this year:

What he is referring to is a story Breitbart News published a couple weeks ago on how a liberal school board member bragged about being “woke.”

Breitbart News also had tons of coverage of these school board fights, from Sarasota to Jacksonville to many more. It is so true: so many in media failed to cover these stories and just choose not to report the news anymore if it does not fit their agenda.

UPDATE 11:28 p.m. ET:

It is going to be tough, however, for Molinaro to pull this off:

UPDATE 11:27 p.m. ET:

It is coming down to the absolute wire in New York’s 19th district special election:

UPDATE 11:09 p.m. ET:

Decision Desk HQ now has Langworthy, at 20,822 votes, leading over Paladino’s 19,558 votes. Nail-biter.

UPDATE 11:05 p.m. ET:

It is a real nail-biter in the Paladino-Langworthy race for the GOP nomination in New York’s 23rd district. The margin is less than 150 votes now:

UPDATE 11:00 p.m. ET:

And with that lead change, Sempolinski has won the special election defeating his Democrat opponent:

Now all eyes shift to the 19th special election and the GOP primary for the 23rd district which both remain outstanding.

UPDATE 10:59 p.m. ET:

And just like that Republican Joseph Sempolinski has taken the lead in the New York 23rd congressional district special election, overtaking Democrat Max Della Pia for the first time tonight, per Decision Desk HQ numbers.

UPDATE 10:54 p.m. ET:

According to Decision Desk HQ’s results, in the New York 23rd district special election, Democrat Max Della Pia’s lead has shrunk to just 75 votes over Republican Joseph Sempolinski. Talk about a nail-biter.

It is unclear as of now what will happen in both of the New York special elections, too, as there is uncertainty as to what is still outstanding and left to be counted:

The ultimate irony is that uncertainty could end up benefitting Republicans this time–not Democrats. It remains to be seen.

UPDATE 10:35 p.m. ET:

In New York’s 19th special election, Democrat Ryan’s lead is now down to less than 8 percent with 70 percent reporting. Molinaro, the Republican, is closing fast.

UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET:

Republican Marc Molinaro is making up serious ground in New York’s 19th congressional district special election, with now 63 percent reporting. He has cut Democrat Pat Ryan’s lead down to less than 9,000 votes and just 12 percent. Ryan, at 56 percent, leads Molinaro’s 44 percent–for now.

UPDATE 10:25 p.m. ET:

Leftists in New York are literally in a full-scale meltdown over the possibility of Carl Paladino winning in the 23rd congressional district. This one, for instance, says in her bio on Twitter she is the “Director of the Largest White Anti-Racist Organization in US History”:

Paladino, with 74 percent reporting in New York’s 23rd district GOP primary, leads Langworthy by north of two thousand votes and has 53.5 percent to Langworthy’s 46.5 percent. It’s too close to call but Paladino is hanging in there even as it tightens.

UPDATE 10:19 p.m. ET:

Where things stand in the two New York special elections right now:

Again, beware the “blue mirage”–these are going to get much tighter and could very well likely flip to the GOP side, especially the Sempolinski race.

UPDATE 9:41 p.m. ET:

It appears as though DCCC chairman Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) has survived a primary challenge:

UPDATE 9:40 p.m. ET:

The Associated Press calls it for Nadler in New York:

UPDATE 9:37 p.m. ET:

A “blue mirage” seems to be showing Democrats leading in early returns in two New York special elections but expect those to change big time very soon:

UPDATE 9:21 p.m. ET:

NBC News projects that Nadler wins the primary against Maloney:

UPDATE 9:16 p.m. ET:

With 2 percent reporting in the special election in upstate New York in the 19th congressional district, Democrat Pat Ryan is currently leading Republican Marc Molinaro but expect this to change and tighten significantly.

UPDATE 9:13 p.m. ET:

The first results are trickling in from across the Empire State. A few immediate thoughts: With 50 percent reporting in New York’s 10th district Democrat primary, Daniel Goldman–the impeachment lead attorney for House Democrats in Trump’s first impeachment–is currently leading by about 7 percent.

In the 12th district Democrat primary, Jerry Nadler has a commanding lead with 32 percent reporting and looks like he will defeat Carolyn Maloney handily.

With only 8 percent in in New York’s 23rd district GOP primary, Carl Paladino has a sizable lead over Nick Langworthy but still a long way to go there.

UPDATE 9:06 p.m. ET:

Gov. DeSantis’s team is loving the Breitbart homepage right now:

UPDATE 9:00 p.m. ET:

The polls are now closed in New York and results are expected there imminently.

UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET:

Trump-backed Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) has formally won the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma:

This means Trump remains perfect in U.S. Senate GOP primary endorsements in 2022. That is nothing short of incredible considering how many open and contested races in which he endorsed.

UPDATE 8:48 p.m. ET:

This is very significant and a big sign of a big red wave:

UPDATE 8:45 p.m. ET:

Martin County, Florida, has flipped:

So has Miami-Dade County:

That means now that Miami-Dade is the largest county in America that has flipped from a liberal school board to a conservative school board.

UPDATE 8:43 p.m. ET:

Team DeSantis is calling the wave of conservative school board victories across Florida on Tuesday “The Parents Revolution”:

UPDATE 8:23 p.m. ET:

Another conservative school board candidate victory, this time up in Duval County in Jacksonville, Florida, where April Carney is projected to defeat her leftist opponent and Charlotte Joyce won too. Both were endorsed by Gov. DeSantis:

UPDATE 8:21 p.m. ET:

This, from Christian Ziegler–the vice chair of the Florida GOP whose wife is one of the conservative school board members in Sarasota–is everything:

The GOP focusing on issues, particularly education, is how the party wins. Republicans nationwide need to learn from Florida tonight and this school board sweep that is shaping up. Those numbers are undeniably great for conservatives going into November.

UPDATE 8:19 p.m. ET:

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has easily fended off a primary challenge:

There was a time not too long ago that the establishment thought he was vulnerable so the fact he won within 15 minutes of the polls closing is a big deal–and a decisive victory.

UPDATE 8:17 p.m. ET:

Rep. Dan Webster (R-FL) survived a primary challenge from Laura Loomer, but it was closer than Republicans expected:

UPDATE 8:16 p.m. ET:

With 4 percent reporting now in Oklahoma, Mullin has charged out to a huge early lead with more 60 percent while Shannon is below 40 percent.

UPDATE 8:12 p.m. ET:

Only a handful of votes are in in Oklahoma but Mullin has the lead over Shannon to start things there.

UPDATE 8:11 p.m. ET:

With 18 percent reporting now, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has a comfortable more than two-to-one lead over his primary opponent.

UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET:

From former President Donald Trump’s team, here are the endorsements Trump has on the line tonight nationwide:

Florida-01 Matt Gaetz

Florida-02 Neal Dunn

Florida-03 Kat Cammack

Florida-05 John Rutherford

Florida-06 Mike Waltz

Florida-08 Bill Posey

Florida-12 Gus Bilirakis

Florida-13 Anna Paulina Luna

Florida-16 Vern Buchanan

Florida-17 Greg Steube

Florida-18 Scott Franklin

Florida-19 Byron Donalds

Florida-21 Brian Mast

Florida-25 Mario Diaz-Balart

Florida-26 Carlos Gimenez

Florida-Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson

Florida-Attorney General Ashley Moody

Florida-Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis

Florida-Senate Marco Rubio

Florida-State Senate-22 Joe Gruters

Florida-Miami-Dade County-Commission-06 Kevin Marino

Florida-Miami-Dade County-Commission-12 Juan Carlos “JC” Bermudez

New York-11 Nicole Malliotakis

New York-21 Elise Stefanik

New York-24 Claudia Tenney

Oklahoma-Senate Markwayne Mullin

UPDATE 8:07 p.m. ET:

Clay County just flipped too:

UPDATE 8:06 p.m. ET:

The Sarasota School Board has flipped from a 3-2 liberal majority to a 4-1 conservative majority. This is a landslide there in terms of conservatives fighting back against radical leftism in schools and a very good sign for Republicans for November and a bad sign for Democrats:

Conservative candidates in school board races across Florida are doing very well on Tuesday night, and many more are likely to flip. This might be the biggest story out of today’s elections. Keep eyes on Duval County, Clay County, and Miami-Dade.

UPDATE 8:00 p.m. ET:

The polls have closed in the rest of Florida and in Oklahoma now. More results are expected imminently.

UPDATE 7:51 p.m. ET:

Rep. Val Demings (D-FL) has formally won the Democrat nomination for U.S. Senate.

In response, the campaign of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) lit into Demings over her support for radical leftist policies.

“Marco Rubio has consistently delivered huge wins for Florida families, working across the aisle to improve the lives of people throughout the state. Meanwhile, Pelosi Puppet Val Demings votes for Joe Biden’s failing agenda 100% of the time and would be a rubber stamp for Democrats’ radical agenda in the Senate. Demings is desperately hoping Floridians will look past her record in Washington but this November, Floridians will remember that while Marco delivers results, Val Demings is just another radical rubber stamp,” Rubio communications director Elizabeth Gregory said.

UPDATE 7:43 p.m. ET:

Cory Mills has won the GOP nomination for Congress in Florida’s 7th congressional district:

UPDATE 7:41 p.m. ET:

Trump wins yet another one tonight–Anna Paulina Luna has won the GOP nomination for Congress in Florida’s 13th congressional district:

UPDATE 7:35 p.m. ET:

Ryan Girdusky, a leading conservative activist who has helped spearhead the school board strategy for conservatives, is projecting big confidence at early returns in Florida:

UPDATE 7:32 p.m. ET:

A developing story in Florida seems to be school board races, where Republicans may have crushed Democrats:

More information should be coming soon as these localities report more results.

UPDATE 7:19 p.m. ET:

With 83 percent in now in Florida’s 13th district GOP primary, Luna has expanded her lead over Hayslett and is now up by slightly more than two thousand votes.

UPDATE 7:13 p.m. ET:

Crist wins the Democrat nomination for governor and will face the GOP’s DeSantis in November:

UPDATE 7:12 p.m. ET:

With 74 percent reporting in the 13th district GOP primary, it is a barnburner between Trump-backed Anna Paulina Luna and opponent Kevin Hayslett. Luna leads by just under 200 votes. This one is very close.

Up in the 7th district with 27 percent reporting, it is a much different picture. Cory Mills is leading with 49.4 percent and Anthony Sabatini has 21.2 percent. Still time for Sabatini to make that up but that’s a lot of ground to fill in.

UPDATE 7:09 p.m. ET:

Now, with 20 percent in, Crist is at 64.1 percent and Fried is at 31.4 percent.

UPDATE 7:08 p.m. ET:

We’re up to 12 percent in and Crist has expanded his lead. He’s at 63.8 percent and Fried is down to 31.5 percent. He seems to be the odds-on favorite to face off against DeSantis in November.

UPDATE 7:05 p.m. ET:

How refreshing: Just minutes after the polls closed, the first results are in in Florida. Florida is perhaps the most efficient big state when it comes to election results–after the 2000 election battles the state cleaned up its act and continues to improve on election integrity–and now we are already getting a quick picture of who is winning in key races.

With 8 percent already reporting in the Democrat gubernatorial primary, Charlie Crist has a huge lead over Nikki Fried. He is at 59.2 percent and she is at 35 percent.

UPDATE 7:04 p.m. ET:

Turnout is apparently extremely high for Republicans in the Sunshine State:

Assuming this trend holds it could bode very badly for Democrats going into November, and very good for Republicans.

It’s also worth noting there are a number of school board races around Florida on Tuesday, and those are a major proxy war between the Democrats and the Republicans. The right has the opportunity to flip many school boards around the state, and Gov. DeSantis has been aggressive in endorsing and campaigning for school board candidates.

UPDATE 7:00 p.m. ET:

The polls have closed in most of Florida–except for the Panhandle–now, and results are expected imminently.