Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is calling for a tax increase on higher earners to safeguard Social Security — a political gamble given the unpopularity of tax increases in the Republican Party, but one some strategists think could play in Ohio.
Moreno, who first entered office in 2025, is one of the more populist members of the Senate, and to the surprise of some, endorsed a plan alongside Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) that calls for lifting the Social Security payroll tax cap. Citing one estimate, they said doing so would infuse the Social Security program with around $3 trillion, which they argue would help stabilize the entitlement program.
But the move is politically fraught. For instance, Republicans, including Moreno, have signed the Americans for Tax Reform pledge to oppose any and all tax increases. Still, Moreno said he thinks most people would agree that higher earners should pay more in order to stabilize Social Security.
Moreno told the Washington Examiner last week that the plan is a “work in progress.”
ATR founder and President Grover Norquist has pushed back hard on the notion of the Warren-Moreno plan. When Moreno was asked about Norquist, the pledge, and potential pushback from the GOP, the senator said he thinks public opinion would land on his side.
“Look, I mean, obviously he has a point of view, I have a different point of view,” Moreno said. “I think most Americans would agree with me, meaning that everybody should pay the same. I’m not asking for rich people to pay more, I’m asking them to pay the same.”
Moreno added that constituents “love” the push.
Norquist, though, said the proposal — which still doesn’t have legislative text and was first floated in a New York Times op-ed — is a violation of Moreno’s taxpayer pledge.
“By any stretch of the imagination this was criminally stupid, politically stupid, economically destructive, and morally flawed, because you shouldn’t lie your way into office,” Norquist told the Washington Examiner during a phone call.
Still, one Ohio Republican political strategist said the Republican Party has shifted in recent years, particularly in Moreno’s state of Ohio. The party under President Donald Trump has moved more toward populism in recent years, and Vice President JD Vance, one of the more populist members of the administration, most recently served in the Senate from the Buckeye State.
The strategist said there will “always be a little bit” of pushback, but “that’s not where the party is anymore.”
“And that’s not where the party, especially in the state of Ohio, is anymore,” the strategist told the Washington Examiner. “So, I think this is like a political winner and kind of a no-brainer too.”
But more broadly, others, particularly those in the more traditional supply-side wing of the party, are not fans of the proposal.
Stephen Moore has advised Trump and is a chairman and co-founder of the group Unleash Prosperity, which supports free markets and repealing regulations. He said such a move would amount to the largest marginal tax increase in decades.
Moore said he couldn’t speak to how this would play politically in Ohio, but emphasized the broader party.
“From a political point of view, it’s bad because it takes away — the one holy grail of the Republican Party is we don’t raise taxes,” Moore told the Washington Examiner.
“If you’re fighting an enemy, it’s like giving up the high ground … so the politics are bad for the Republican Party,” he said.
But others note just how dire the Social Security funding crisis is.
The Social Security retirement trust fund will be exhausted in 2032, earlier than previously anticipated, the program’s trustees projected earlier this month, meaning senior citizens would face a cut in their benefits at that time unless Congress acts.
Workers can claim Social Security retirement beginning at age 62. Benefits increase the longer workers wait to claim them, but they cap out at a retirement age of 70.
The trustees predicted that the old-age and survivors insurance trust fund would only be enough to pay 78% of scheduled benefits in the fourth quarter of 2032.
The OASI trust fund, combined with the disability insurance trust fund, is projected to be able to pay out benefits until 2034, after which there will only be enough to pay out 83% of benefits, the trustees project.
Moreno and Warren address the projections in their joint op-ed.
“That’s just six years away,” the lawmakers wrote. “Instead of cutting benefits for the retirees who count on Social Security, we need to take bipartisan action to protect those benefits, reward work and restore fairness.
“That starts with a common-sense solution: lifting the Social Security payroll tax cap,” the two added.
AARP Ohio praised Moreno for joining with Warren on the matter.
Excited to see [Moreno] working across the aisle on a bipartisan plan to strengthen Social Security without cutting benefits,” the group posted on X. “This is a serious step forward & exactly the kind of action Ohioans deserve & 92% want based on our recent poll.”
But critics of the Warren-Moreno plan also argue it won’t just raise taxes on the wealthy — that is because for this year, the payroll tax cap, or taxable maximum, is $184,500.
Put simply, someone earning $80,000 per year pays a Social Security tax on 100% of that as does someone making $184,500. But if someone earns $250,000, they only pay a Social Security tax on that first $184,500. So by lifting the cap, those earning above that would be paying more in taxes.
And in some high-cost-of-living parts of the country, $184,500 is really not all that rich, according to Mark Warshawsky, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert in healthcare and retirement policy.
“In fact, in many parts of the country, that’s really a middle-class earnings, particularly if it’s a one-earner family, that’s a middle-class standard of living,” he told the Washington Examiner. “So you’re raising the taxes on those people.”
A second Republican strategist with experience in Ohio who the Washington Examiner spoke with said that in Ohio, Social Security and Medicare are major concerns because of the aging population in the state.
The second strategist also pointed out that Ohio has been less of a swing state in recent elections.
“A big part of that has to do with your recognition you have an older, more blue-collar electorate there for whom protecting these entitlement programs is really a do-or-die issue, and it’s kind of the table stakes of political viability,” the strategist said.
But notably, there haven’t been other Republican senators who have signed on to the Warren-Moreno push yet.
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Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) is up for election in the state this year and said he is “not on board” with such a plan during an interview on Guy Benson’s show on Fox Radio.
“I love Bernie Moreno — he’s my friend, he’s my colleague. I agree that we should protect Social Security and strengthen Social Security, but this rifle approach with the giant tax increase is not the way I would go about it,” he said.
