The sudden death of Sen. Lindsey Graham has rattled what had been one of the GOP’s safest Senate races, creating a political opening for Democrats as their candidate, Dr. Annie Andrews, now runs for an open seat rather than facing a strong incumbent.
Graham, who died Saturday after what his office described as a “brief and sudden illness,” had already secured the Republican nomination for a fifth Senate term in June and was widely viewed as the overwhelming favorite in November.
His death now leaves South Carolina Republicans racing to replace their nominee while Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC) prepares to appoint a temporary successor to the Senate seat. Under South Carolina election law, Republicans will hold a special primary to choose a new nominee for the November ballot.
The compressed timeline could reshape the race in ways that benefit Democrats, at least financially and organizationally.
Unlike Republicans, Democrats already have a nominee in Andrews, a pediatrician who won her primary last month and has spent weeks building a general election campaign centered on advocating universal healthcare, affordability, and public safety. Andrews has framed her campaign in a way that has proven successful for Democrats in other races, but she starts at a disadvantage in deep-red South Carolina.
But the mother of three has a slight edge, as rather than competing in another intraparty contest, Andrews can devote the coming weeks to fundraising, voter outreach, and defining herself while Republicans sort through what could become a crowded and expensive primary. Since launching her bid, Andrews has raised over $8 million, and, according to FEC filings, reported having nearly $3 million in cash on hand at the end of May.
Graham’s passing also removes one of the GOP’s traditional advantages: incumbency.
Graham brought more than two decades of Senate seniority, national fundraising connections, and strong name recognition to the race. Any replacement nominee would begin without those built-in advantages and with considerably less time to consolidate Republican support behind a single candidate before November.
That timing could force national Republican groups to divert money into South Carolina that may have been otherwise spent defending more competitive Senate seats.
HOW WILL LINDSEY GRAHAM BE REPLACED AS SOUTH CAROLINA SENATOR AFTER SUDDEN DEATH?
For Democrats, the question is whether the race becomes competitive enough to justify a similar investment.
South Carolina has not elected a Democrat statewide in over two decades, and Graham consistently outperformed Democratic challengers despite periodic speculation that he could be vulnerable. Political analysis had generally viewed the seat as safely Republican before his death.
Still, the political map has shifted since Saturday.
If Republicans endure a divisive primary runoff, Democrats could spend the intervening weeks raising money largely uncontested while forcing Republicans to spend millions introducing and defending a new nominee.
The possibility becomes even more significant if high-profile Republicans enter the race. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who has frequently clashed with members of her own party and remains a polarizing figure in South Carolina, has reportedly signaled interest in running for the now-open seat. Andrew previously challenged Mace in a House race but lost. Mace just lost her gubernatorial bid by a significant margin and will leave her House seat in January.
Another possible GOP pick could be Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, a close ally of McMaster and President Donald Trump’s initial pick in the Palmetto State’s gubernatorial race. Evette could reactivate her gubernatorial campaign’s infrastructure.
Mark Lynch, who fell to Graham in the GOP primary after self-funding his campaign, has also said he is interested in a bid.
Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), a close ally of Trump, quickly removed himself from the running, saying he intended to stay in the House.
“I am grateful to constituents for their overwhelming primary support of 74 percent last month. I just assured President Trump I intend to remain in the House for his agenda, as he and I reviewed our appreciation for Lindsey Graham,” he wrote on X.
Trump told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that he already has someone in mind for the seat, and the president’s backing has proven to be a strong advantage in the state.
National Democratic strategists may view South Carolina differently in light of the broader Senate battlefield.
Democrats face difficult paths in several races they once considered more attainable, including Maine, where their pick, Graham Platner, exited the race following sexual assault allegations. If opportunities narrow elsewhere, investing additional resources in South Carolina, even if only to force Republicans onto the defensive, could become more attractive than it appeared days ago.
TRIBUTES POUR IN FOR LINDSEY GRAHAM AFTER SUDDEN DEATH: ‘LOST A BOLD LEADER’
Whether Democrats ultimately make that calculation remains unclear. The Democratic National Committee had not publicly indicated Sunday whether Graham’s death would alter their spending plans. The Washington Examiner reached out for comment.
Even if South Carolina remains a long shot for Democrats, Graham’s death has fundamentally changed the political equation. What had been expected to be a relatively straightforward reelection campaign is now likely to feature an open Republican battle, an appointed interim senator, and renewed questions about whether national Democrats see an opportunity worth testing in a race that suddenly looks far less predictable than it did a week ago.
