*** Election Night Livewire *** Cassidy Cornered: Louisiana Decides Fate of Trump Impeachment Enabler

The Democrats’ strongest ally in the U.S. Senate GOP conference when it comes to their decade-long quest to impeach President Donald Trump faces possible elimination from his seat at the hands of primary voters in Louisiana on Saturday night.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), supposedly a Republican, joined all the Senate Democrats and a handful of “Republicans” five years ago in a whimsical twist of fate when he voted to convict Trump on his second impeachment in the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Cassidy is one of just three U.S. Senate Republicans voted to convict Trump remaining in the chamber, and now voters in Louisiana get a shot to remove this establishment figure once and for all. Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) in a three-way primary against Cassidy, and former Rep. John Fleming (R-LA)–the State Treasurer–is also running. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the race will go to a runoff–and that’s a real possibility if not a likelihood on Saturday night–but it’s actually possibly that Cassidy gets eliminated on Saturday even if there’s a runoff because the polling has showed all three candidates bunched up near each other.

If Cassidy goes down–either on Saturday or later in a runoff–then it would be the first time a sitting GOP senator has lost in 14 years. The last time a GOP senator lost a primary was when Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) lost to Richard Mourdock. Mourdock would go on to lose the general election to now former Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN), but he represents the last time a GOP senator lost a primary. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) also defeated an incumbent GOP senator, Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), but he did so at the state convention in Utah not in a primary. It is extremely rare, in other words, to see sitting senators in the Republican Party lose primary elections.

Cassidy is not the only shot conservative outsiders have at taking down the establishment’s picks this year, either. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to lead incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in Texas, just over a week out from the GOP primary runoff later this month.

Polls close in Louisiana at 9:00 p.m. ET. Follow along here for live results and analysis.

UPDATE 11:16 p.m. ET:

Apparently, Cassidy called both Letlow and Fleming to concede. In a statement, too, he said: “I feel great.”

That is a very strange thing for the first GOP U.S. Senator to lose a primary in 14 years to say.

UPDATE 11:10 p.m. ET:

And now the AP makes it official: Bill Cassidy’s days in the U.S. Senate are over. Fleming is advancing with Letlow to the runoff:

UPDATE 10:42 p.m. ET:

The AP has called it for Letlow advancing but not yet for Fleming:

That being said, Fleming leads Cassidy by more than 13,000 votes–by 4.2 percent–with 88 percent reporting, according to the New York Times. Cassidy is finished.

UPDATE 10:40 p.m. ET:

This clip really sums up the embarrassing end of Cassidy’s political career:

UPDATE 10:10 p.m. ET:

Decision Desk HQ is projecting that Sen. Cassidy has lost his reelection bid, and that Letlow and Fleming will both advance to the runoff.

UPDATE 10:05 p.m. ET:

Cassidy’s political career is quickly slipping away from him. He now, with 60 percent reporting in Louisiana, trailed by more than 4 full percent and more than 8,000 votes. He needs more than a handful of miracles to turn this trend around. It’s looking more and more likely Cassidy will be losing his Senate race tonight.

UPDATE 10:02 p.m. ET:

Things are looking dour for Cassidy everywhere, and the only parish in Louisiana in which he is currently leading is in East Baton Rouge Parish–which includes the state capital, Baton Rouge. With 52 percent reporting, Cassidy is now more than 3 full percent away from a second place finish and runoff ticket–and he is more than 5,000 votes away. This is extremely embarrassing for a sitting U.S. Senator.

UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET:

More votes keep coming in and with 40 percent reporting now per the Times, Letlow continues her commanding lead at 42.4 percent while Fleming is still in second with 29.1 percent and Cassidy is still stuck in third but a smidge closer with 26.3 percent.

UPDATE 9:42 p.m. ET:

With 25 percent reporting now according to the New York Times, things look worse and worse for Cassidy. Letlow maintains a lead at 43.9 percent and Fleming is maintaining his second place position at 30.4 percent. Cassidy is stuck in third down at just 23.6 percent.

UPDATE 9:16 p.m. ET: 

Early results look terrible for Cassidy. With 15 percent reporting, he is deep in third place with just 24.2 percent–with Letlow way out front at 45.2 percent and Fleming in the middle at 28.1 percent. Cassidy needs a miracle to turn this around.